Just Thinking2021-03-05T16:43:25+00:00

Growth Projections with the Bass Model

Try the Bass Diffusion Model Simulation One of the most common exercises I go through with clients when assessing the growth projections for a new product or service is the simulation of market penetration and distribution. These growth estimates are fundamental and one of the most difficult things to predict. While we use a variety of models depending on the application, one of the more common and best-documented growth projection models is the Bass Diffusion model, and we have been exploring the use of the Bass Diffusion model in modeling network effects in Platforms.  More about Bass Models can be found on Wikipedia In an effort for us to quickly explore and demonstrate diffusion potential for clients, we have developed a simulation model based on some code initially [...]

By |March 15th, 2021|Categories: Modeling|Tags: , , , , , , |0 Comments

Bringing Order to Chaos

As I return to “blogging” after several years away from the practice, I have struggled with what the perfect message was for that triumphant first post. After much consideration and false starts, I decided that if I am going to start blogging again, it is going to be on whatever interests me at the given moment. Sometimes it will relate to the work or ideas being advanced by First Steps Consulting, but other times it may not. This is the first post is what is going to be a series of posts where I explore what interests me. Because lots of things interest me, my posts could be about a wide range of things. I hope you find them interesting and if they raise questions or require revisions, please [...]

By |November 3rd, 2014|Categories: General|0 Comments

Innovation Design, Dreaming and Priming

Given our interest at First Steps Consulting in innovation design and the innovation pipeline, I have been reading with some interest about the work being done by the MIT Media Lab's Dream Team' (Cool name, huh). While they are working on a number of projects, I have been particularly intrigued by the general concept of Targeted Dream Incubation (TDI). The objective of TDI, as I understand it, is to leverage the unrestrained and divergent nature of unconscious sleep by inserting particular themes into our heads while we are sliding into sleep during a state of sleep called hypnagogia, made up of the first stages of sleep. The thinking is that our unrestrained brains during REM sleep can be wildly creative and that it is possible to direct some of this creativity [...]

By |November 3rd, 2014|Categories: Innovation|Tags: , , , , |0 Comments