Archive for the ‘opportunity’ tag
Embrace today, Envision tomorrow… no comments
Recessions usher in periods of incredible clarity as well as tremendous amounts of confused and ill defined opportunity. In this entry, I would like to highlight a key consideration for the entrepreneur or the corporate ”intrapreneur” as we head into the unknown landscape of 2009.
Anticipate the path before you and review the path behind
Part of what makes recessionary periods exciting for entrepreneurs is the prospect of change. Most entrepreneurs are in a constant state of seeking out imbalances, which are unsuprisingly more common and more extreme during periods of change. These imbalances are in essence potential opportunities.
By definition, an imbalance between two states A and B exists when one stays the same, and the other changes in a significant fashion. Opportunity exists in knowing and recognizing the state of change in BOTH A and B. What I have found interesting in my years of working with aspiring entrepreneurs is that there is tendency to focus on either one state or the other rather than the nature or the size of the change between the two.
I will find some businesses, particularly larger businesses, are very capable of reviewing their current state (state A). They can segment exisiting customers, review sales trends, measure brand recognition, but they have a much more difficult time anticipating a portfolio of potential futures, particulary futures that includes new industries or markets.
On the other side of the coin are visionaries who are immersed in the collage of possible tomorrows (state B). These individuals are extraordinary in their sensitivity to the times, but have a very difficult time linking these future scenarios to a current reality. They are so focused in “pushing the envelope” that they often forget there is an envelope.
In Sun Tzu’s the Art of War, this concept is captured in “Shih”. In discussing context Suz Tzu exclaims
“As for the Nature of Trees and rocks –
When still they are at rest
When agitated, they move
When square, they stop
When round, they go
Thus the shih of one skilled at setting people to battle is like rolling round rocks from a mountain one thousand jen high”
As entrepreneurs, we are interested in the “agitation of the round rocks” that change their state and creates the unstoppable momentum of rocks rolling down a very high mountain.
In short, opportunity in a recession lies in understanding BOTH states, and more importantly the size and nature of the gulf or shift between the two. A simple mind exercise is to lay out a three column template with the first and third columns being details on two states that you are familiar with, and the middle column being the linkages between those two states.
The real opportunity lies in your ability to detail the middle column. As James Webb points out in his book “A Technique for Producing Ideas”, the real skill in generating ideas is identifying the relationships and patterns between things that we already know.
A great resource for firing up your own creativity or for building creativity into your corporate work culture is the ongoing conversation started at the Harvard Business School on leading creativity.
Another great mp3 by Tom Kelley from IDEO on creative innovation released by the Stanford “Entrepreneurship Thought Leader” series can be found here.
For the corporate manager, the current and coming recession may feel like a dreaded event. The entrepreneur or intrapreneur should be licking their lips…
If you are interested in a more detailed and thorough ”scenario analysis” or “gaps” analysis for your industry, contact us for more details about our opportunity assessment services.
